Best Books Rating: 4.7 The book carries a heavy warning of how the mishandling of international relations between China and the US could end. As George Santayana famously said “those who do not remember the past are destined to repeat it”; hopefully armed with this literature and the rich history within its pages, those in power may navigate the difficult landscape of a power shift from West to East. 329 pages.
Synopsis
‘Destined for War’ is centred on one key concept: “the severe structural stress caused when a rising power threatens to upend a ruling one”, a situation that the author labels Thucydides Trap. One comes to understand the hubris of a rising power and the paranoia of the ruling one through the telling of the story of the Peloponnesian War recorded by Thucydides. Allison uses this and a series of other historical events to explain the current Thucydides Trap facing The Peoples Republic of China and The United States of America.
Although this book was written several years ago, Allison talks directly about situations that have flared up in recent months – tensions in Hong Kong and an economic trade war – and how these could spark serious conflict. His analysis is arguably even more relevant today than the day it was published. If you want a deeper understanding of arguably the most significant geopolitical situation facing our generation then this is a very good place to start.
One of the most interesting take aways for me was the shear scale of the Chinese economy and the rate at which it has arrived at the main stage. It has gone from representing 2% of the world’s economy in 1980 to 18% in 2015. More to the point, it is the rate at which China has regained both regional and international influence after its demise during the ‘century of shame’, when colonial powers inflicted significant economic damage, that is so impressive.
Favourite Quotes
“What made war inevitable, Thucydides tells us, ‘was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta.'”
Allison, 2017. p.29
“not just extraordinary, unexpected events, but even ordinary flashpoint of foreign affairs, can trigger large-scale conflict.”
Allison, 2017. p. 29
Interesting Facts
China unseated the US as the world’s largest economy in 2014, when using the yardstick of Purchasing Power Parity (“PPP”).
About the Author
Graham Allison has advised the secretaries of defence under Regan, Clinton and Obama. He is currently the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard.
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